Harvey's Impact on the TN Valley?


Harvey continues to weigh on our minds, the next question is, "what impact will Harvey have on our weather".

As of Monday morning, Harvey is moving back into the waters of the western Gulf, still very sluggish to move but will eventually begin its trek to the north by Wednesday. In the meantime, we are dealing with extra clouds but mostly stable conditions on Monday and Tuesday. Can't rule out a few afternoon showers, maybe a rumble.

Harvey's Track:

As noted in the the Harvey track, the center of Harvey could be over Memphis by Friday night into early Saturday. this of course is subject to change. We MUST note, most of the rain will be well east and north of the center, and could impact us. We could feel more of a rainy impact by Wednesday as some of Harvey's outer bands move in locally as Harvey begins to move north. The track may and likely will change. Again, we can't just focus on the path but the extent of the rain shield.

What will we see here?

As noted in the Extended Future Track Maps, rain could spread in on Wednesday, and possibly hang around through the weekend. Not raining all day, and the weekend forecast is still in question. I know, there are a few questions.

  • As of Monday:
  • More widespread and heavier rain possible on Wednesday/Thursday.
  • Friday-Weekend will depend on Track of Harvey. However prepare for more rain. Off and On.
  • Some tropical downpours are likely. NOTHING compared to TX.
  • Severe weather is not likely, but may need to watch a few storms on Wednesday/Thursday, or any day we have sunshine in the AM.
  • Right now, I want to dry us out for Labor Day. We will see.

How much rain?

If current idea comes true, I can see a couple of inches of rain by the end of the weekend (note picture).
I don't expect flooding issues. However as is always the case, heavy rain at any time could lead to excessive run-off.

Bottom Line.

Expect the second half of the workweek to be wet. If you have weekend plans, keep tabs on the forecast. I DON'T Expect problems locally, but a couple good tropical downpours are possible.

-Brian Smith

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